Predicting how many offensive tackles will be drafted before the Bengals' 18th pick in the NFL Draft

It's been overanalyzed to death, but the Cincinnati Bengals are set up to finally solve their right tackle woes for good in the NFL Draft.

Even months of talking in circles around this year's crop of offensive tackles has not changed what is known. There are several legitimate prospects at the position with clear first-round grades, and most of them are slated to go off the board around the Bengals' 18th overall pick. 

The only way this plan is thwarted is if too many tackles are swiped in front of them. How many will already be drafted by the time the Bengals are up to pick? Recent history gives us a good idea.

What the last 20 years have looked like

What better way to gauge expectations than looking at the past? The NFL usually takes a while to change course on a league-wide scale when it comes to draft trends. Remember how long it took for running backs to eventually become a first round rarity? Now it's a once every two years instance.

For this reason, I opted to look at four different time ranges to account for any discrepancies. The results were surprisingly consistent.

Here are the average number of tackles drafted between picks 1-17 over the last five, 10, 15, and 20 years:

Between two and three tackles taken before the 18th pick is a strong expectation, even if the trajectory is going slightly up. 

In this 20-year sample size, there were only three years in which four tackles were taken in the first 17 picks:

2020: Andrew Thomas (4th pick), Jedrick Wills Jr. (10th pick), Mekhi Becton (11th pick), Tristan Wirfs (13th pick).

2016: Ronnie Stanley (6th pick), Jack Conklin (8th pick), Laremy Tunsil (13th pick), Taylor Decker (16th pick).

2008: Jake Long (1st pick), Ryan Clady (12th pick), Branden Albert (15th pick), Gosder Cherilus (17th pick).

For the sake of transparency, the average number of total offensive linemen drafted in this range is slightly higher, but I removed any player who ended up not being a tackle in the NFL even if they were drafted to play that position. This removed the likes of Alex Leatherwood, D.J. Fluker, and others. We're drafting tackles here, not guards. This is relevant for this year's class too.

There are six with a realistic chance to be drafted in this range. Joe Alt, JC Latham, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu, and Amarius Mims are the ones that have been in the sights of Bengals fans. Alt is a virtual lock for the top 10 picks, so it's really waiting to see which of the remaining five lasts to 18.

Out of those five, a couple are potential guards in the NFL. Fuaga is viewed by some clubs as a guard, and Fautanu's profile makes him a candidate as well. The odds that at least one make the move inside early in their career are greater than both lasting outside. We'll operate under the assumption that one is destined to play guard for the majority of his career, and since Fuaga has the lesser length of the two, we'll use him as the test case. 

Where are the tackles projected to get drafted?

Now that we have recent history covered, let's project the future. Here are the draft position over/under (O/U) lines for the top six linemen alongside with their expected draft position (EDP) based on mock drafts. The former is courtesy of The Draft Network's Jaime Eisner, and the latter by Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks:

As previously known, Alt going past the 7th pick would be a surprise to everyone. The Tennessee Titans have that on lock if he's there. Mock drafts seem to favor Fashanu going off the board next, while betting markets having him grouped with Latham and Fautanu.

Three tackles with O/Us right under the 15th pick signifies the run on the position Bengals fans are concerned about. The Las Vegas Raiders (13th pick), New Orleans Saints (14th pick), and Seattle Seahawks (16th pick) have been popular spots for tackles to go in mock drafts.

While these are the favorites to be picked first, the NFL Draft is always capable of shaking up the consensus. Mims, Graham Barton, and Tyler Guyton can't be outright dismissed as possibilities to leapfrog at least one consensus top five. 

The names may end up different, but as far as the final number, we've got a firm idea of what to expect. 

Prediction

Removing Fuaga from the group as a potential guard, this class joining the classes of 2008, 2016, and 2020 appears likely with four tackles off the board in the first half of the first round. Five total lineman may end up hearing their names called, but again, the odds of all five becoming career tackles are unlikely. Perhaps Fautanu will join him and the true number drops to three.

The fear of five true tackles being taken in front of the Bengals looks far fetched when looking at the recent past and present. There hasn't been a class with five true tackles taken in the first 17 picks going all the way back to the second year of Marvin Lewis' tenure in Cincinnati. That's an eternity for Bengals fans.

One of their top five tackles will be available to them. The randomness of the draft is always in play, but said randomness is more likely to help the Bengals than hurt them.